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Does China’s weak domestic demand really lead to excess capacity?: People's Daily_我的网站

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A | 《日报》全媒体记者张宝程　　3个月的生长期到了，6月11日一大早，李海山找来30多名帮手，到自家地块收获独头蒜。

A worker fulfills orders for energy-saving and environmentally friendly boilers destined for export in a manufacturing enterprise in Nantong, East China's Jiangsu Province on August 4, 2026. The enterprise offers products including industrial waste disposal equipment, with sales to more than 30 countries and regions. Photo: CNS PhotoIn recent years, some economies, anxious about their own industrial competitiveness and market position, have politicized economic and trade issues, taking turns to hype false narratives such as "China overcapacity" and a "China Shock 2.0," and using them as pretexts to roll out protectionist measures.
But what are the facts on the ground?
China's Ministry of Commerce recently released a document titled China's Position on the So-Called Excess Capacity Issue. Reviewing the evolution of the global capacity landscape from a historical perspective, it offers an objective analysis of how industrial subsidies, trade surpluses, economic imbalances and market competition relate to "overcapacity," sets out China's policy practices and the direction of its efforts, and puts forward China's ideas and proposals - a forceful response to the "China overcapacity" narrative.
Plainly, the argument that "China's inadequate domestic demand gives rise to excess capacity" rests on a logical sleight of hand - it takes a localized phenomenon at the micro level of the market and applies it wholesale to the structure of the macroeconomy, a picture far removed from reality.
China is not only a major manufacturing power but also a major consuming power. Domestic demand has long been the main engine of the Chinese economy.
To see through the logical fallacy of the "overcapacity" narrative, one must first be clear about where the Chinese economy actually sits in the global landscape.
In the course of economic globalization, China has actively integrated itself into the international division of industrial labor and become the "world's factory" in the truest sense. Chinese manufacturing has enriched the global supply of goods, lowered living costs for consumers in countries around the world, and played an important part in easing global inflationary pressure. But to define China simply as a "producer" on that basis, and from there to conclude that it suffers from "inadequate domestic demand and overcapacity," is a proposition that does not hold water.
From 2013 to 2024, domestic demand contributed an average of 93 percent to China's economic growth, with consumption and investment accounting for an average of 55 percent and 38 percent respectively. China's total retail sales of consumer goods rose from 23.8 trillion yuan ($3.53 trillion) in 2013 to 50.1 trillion yuan in 2025, doubling in size.
Measured at the World Bank's purchasing power parity rates, China's total retail sales of consumer goods in 2025 were 1.7 times those of the US, making the country the world's largest market for consumer goods in all but name. China today ranks first globally in the physical volume of goods consumed, and its per capita annual consumption of some industrial products already approaches the levels seen in developed economies.
China keeps expanding its domestic demand and is working toward a higher-level balance between supply and demand.
Growth in China's total retail sales of consumer goods has slowed somewhat in recent years, and some have taken this as proof of weak domestic demand. That reading is neither objective nor complete.
A strong domestic market provides strategic support for Chinese modernization. The outline of China's 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30) period devotes a dedicated part to building such a market, stressing the need to adhere to the strategic focus of expanding domestic demand, to expand effective investment, to further implement special actions to boost consumption, to promote the expansion and upgrading of commodity consumption, to unleashing the potential of service consumption, to strengthening the foundation of residents' consumption and to continuously improve the consumption environment - using new demand to guide new supply, and using new supply to create new demand, so as to promote a virtuous cycle between consumption and investment, and between supply and demand, achieve a higher level of dynamic balance between supply and demand.
The slowdown in retail sales growth is consistent with China's shift from high-speed growth to high-quality development, and it also reflects the upgrading of the country's consumption structure. China's consumer market is moving faster from one dominated by goods toward one in which goods and services carry equal weight. Spending on services is growing rapidly and is expected to account for more than half of the total by 2030.
China's super-sized market is not only the bedrock of its own development but also a broad platform on which countries around the world can share in the dividends of that growth.
China has ranked as the world's second-largest importer for 17 consecutive years and is a major export destination for nearly 80 countries and regions. It has granted zero-tariff treatment to 63 countries and regions, becoming the first major economy in the world to extend full zero-tariff coverage to every African country and every least developed country that has diplomatic relations with it. It is also the only country to host an international import expo, having staged eight editions of the China International Import Expo with cumulative intended deals worth more than $580 billion. Over the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-25) period, China's cumulative imports topped 90 trillion yuan. These facts and figures show clearly that China is not just the "world's factory" but, still more, the "world's market."
Looking ahead, China's middle-income group is set to exceed 800 million people within little more than a decade, and per capita GDP is expected to reach the level of a moderately developed country. With vast room for consumption and ample potential and vitality, domestic demand will remain the main engine of China's economic development and will keep injecting strong momentum into world economic growth.
This was compiled and translated by the Global Times English edition based on an article published in the "Chisu Jinsheng" economic commentary column of the People's Daily on August 6, 2026.
。“今年长势不错，估计一亩地能产两千多斤，市场行情也好，每斤6元左右，每亩毛钱能卖1.3万元，真是咱老百姓致富的金‘蒜’盘啊。” 　　绥中县塔山屯镇大施宝村地理位置优越，气候、土壤等均适合种植独头蒜。像其他种植户一样，依托国家的好政策，在当地政府大力扶持下，10余年来，李海山在种植独头蒜的道路上踏实前进。“一开始是几亩、十几亩，到现在70亩。这项产业让我尝到了甜头，家里以前破旧的房子变成现在的二层小楼，车也不缺，小日子红红火火。” 　　别看李海山说得轻巧，其实，在生产经营过程中，他与家人花费了很多心思和辛苦。每年的9月份，从山东采购独头蒜种子，然后放在院子里的通风、阴凉处。到了寒冷时节，还得拿到屋子里，温度不能太高。“种子很娇气，存放时温度不能过高或过低，否则影响质量，来年开春种植后影响出苗率及产量。” 　　每年的3月初，开始种植独头蒜。十余天里，李海山与家人非常忙，几乎每天都吃喝在地里，生怕耽搁了农时。

B | 种子下到地里，他还时时观察水分大小、温度高低，目的是让独头蒜茁壮成长。“功夫不负有心人，今年我家能产十五六万斤独头蒜，产值近100万元，纯利润将近40万元。” 　　种植、管理、收获等方面均科学规范、合理有序，当地的独头蒜个头大、颜色好、口感佳，十余年来，名声在外。每当收获季来临，种植户通过自身的人脉资源或农村经纪人，联系上四川、云南、重庆等地的客商，对方开着大货车及时赶过来，种植户不用将独头蒜运回家，在田间地头就将产品卖掉，省去了脱水、储存等环节。　　据大施宝村村支书赵刚介绍，村民的市场嗅觉非常敏锐，加上村干部积极宣讲政策、大力帮扶、拓展市场，村民种植独头蒜的热情一年比一年高。“今年村里种植1000余亩独头蒜，村民还在临近村子承包了将近4000亩，共种植5000亩左右。产值能达到6000万元，纯利润2000余万元。

C | ” 　　为了让农业产业进一步“身价看涨”，塔山屯镇镇政府积极与有关部门联系，批复了几块大型晾晒场地，便于种植户晾晒独头蒜。该镇镇长孙雪说，受市场行情波动影响，有些种植户收获完不立即售卖，而是晾晒后储存在恒温库里。等到“十一”或年前年后卖，每斤独头蒜能达到八九元钱，进一步增加了种植户收入。　　“政府和广大种植户始终同频共振，在不断优化营商环境的同时，积极做好助手、帮手、抓手，‘多面手’的正向形象深入人心，加上他们科学种植、管理精细，致富的道路才能越走越宽阔。”孙雪说。

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Published on:11:21:59